Monday, August 8, 2011

2010 Breeders Cup Horse Analysis

As we approach the Breeders Cup for 2010 where the best of the best horses square off to see who will be crowned the best horse of the year. We have some good contenders as you can see below is a list of the horses that will be battling out along with the stats that allowed them to be a challenger in the derby. It will however be very difficult to beat the last year Breeders Cup winner Zenyatta. This horse has gone on to win every race since then and has won 19 races in a row. This feat is almost unheard of in the horse racing industry. Each race she does just what it takes to win and it appears she always has some reserve in the tank. So will this race be any different? Well there are some very tough horses but none appear to have the class, the caliber and talent of Zenyatta.

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The Breeders Cup is one of the most expensive purses paid in all of horse racing and to win Back to Back Breeders Cup is a fantasy for most horses and trainers. Let me put it this way if Zenyatta does not beat this talented field there will be a lot of loss bets. She is not set to dissapoint any of her fans and even though this will be one of the toughest races of her career she is at the top of her game and ready to pounce on another Breeders Cup victory. If she does this then its almost a lock in for the horse of the year rights which she lost to Rachel Alexandria last year in a close ballet. Super Saver will be there to do his best to upset Zenyatta and if there is some rain making the track a mess that horse has a great chance. In the Kentucky Derby the track was a sloppy mess and Super Savor who is know for loving a track of this caliber took a Derby win to become the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner and has won over 1.7 million this year.

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If you look at the horses below Blame, Quality Road, Fly Down, Looking at lucky have all earned over a million this year which is more than Zenyatta as they have been reserved on the races that Zenyatta has been in. Will the experience be a factor? Why was Zenyatta not put in a place to win some of these purses? I believe because they were setting her up to win the Granddaddy of them all, The Breeders Cup. Look at the horses below and see which one you think will be the one to beat?

BREEDERS CUP WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS 2010
Churchill Downs Louisville, KY
November 5 & 6, 2010

OFFICIAL LEADING POINT EARNERS (as of Oct. 18, 2010)

Standing Dirt Points Horse Trainer Owner(s)

01 BC Challenge Winner Blame Albert M. Stall, Jr. Claiborne Farm; Adele Dilschneider

Has a 2010 record of (4-3-1-0); 2010 Earnings: ,051,467; 2010 Win % is 75%; In-The-Money is 100%. Blame finished 1st on the following race: Whitney H. @ Saratoga was on Aug.7, 2010; Stephen Foster H. @ Churchill Downs on June 12, 2010; William Donald Schaefer S. @ Pimlico on May 15, 2010; Clark H. @ Churchill Downs on Nov. 27, 2009; Fayette S. @ Keeneland was on Oct. 31, 2009; Curlin S.@ Saratoga on Aug. 2, 2009; Allowance @ Churchill Downs held on July 2, 2009 & Maiden Special Weight @ Keeneland held on Oct.17, 2008. Blame finished 2nd in Jockey Club Gold Cup S. @ Belmont Park on Oct. 2, 2010 and Super Derby @ Lousiana Downs on Sept. 19, 2009.

02 BC Challenge Winner Gran Estreno (ARG) (S15%) Michael Stidham Feel The Thunder Stable

Has a 2009 record of (10-6-0-3); 2009 Earnings: $ 232,239; 2009 Win % is 60%; In-The-Money is 90%. Gran Estreno finished 1st on the following race: Washington Park H @ Arlington Park took place on Sept. 4, 2010; Allowance Optional Claiming @ Arlington Park held on May 6, 2010; Washington Park H. @ Arlington Park took place on Sept. 5, 2009 and Claiming Crown Emerald S. @ Canterbury Park held on July 25, 2009. Gran Estreno finished 3rd in Allowance Optional Claiming @ Arlington Park held on Aug. 21, 2010; Hanshin Cup H. @ Arlington Park held on May 29, 2010; and Allowance Optional Claiming @ Keeneland held on Oct. 30, 2009.

03 BC Challenge Winner Richard's Kid Bob Baffert Zabeel Racing International

Has a 2010 record of (5-3-0-2); 2010 Earnings: $ 915,000; 2010 Win % is 60%; In-The-Money is 100%. Richard's Kid finished 1st on the following race: Goodwood S. @ Oak Tree At Hollywood Park on Oct. 2, 2010; Pacific Classic S. presented by TVG @ Del Mar on Aug. 28, 2010; San Antonio H. @ Santa Anita Park on Feb. 7, 2010 and Pacific Classic S. @ Del Mar on Sept. 6, 2009. Richard's Kid finished 2nd in Cougar II H. @ Del Mar on Aug. 5, 2009 and 3rd in Cougar II H. @ Del Mar on July 30, 2010; Hollywood Gold Cup H. @ Hollywood Park held on July 10, 2010 and Goodwood S. @Oak Tree At Santa Anita on Oct. 10, 2009.

04 50 Zenyatta John A. Shirreffs Mr. & Mrs. Jerome S. Moss

Has a 2010 record of (5-5-0-0); 2010 Earnings: $ 930,000; 2010 Win % is 100%; In-The-Money is 100%. Zenyatta finished 1st on the following race: Lady's Secret S. @ Oak Tree At Hollywood Park was Oct. 2, 2010; Clement L. Hirsch S. @ Del Mar on Aug. 7, 2010; Vanity H. @ Hollywood Park on June 13, 2010; Apple Blossom Invitational S. @ Oaklawn Park on April 9, 2010; Santa Margarita Invitational H. @ Santa Anita Park on Mar. 13, 2010; Breeders' Cup Classic @ Oak Tree At Santa Anita on Nov. 7, 2009; Lady's Secret S.@ Oak Tree At Santa Anita on Oct. 10, 2009; Clement L. Hirsch S. @ Del March on Aug. 9, 2009; Vanity H. @ Hollywood Park June 27, 2009 and Milady H. @ Hollywood Park on May 23, 2009.

Strengths: Massive filly can make her own race, not needing pace help, and finishes with a flourish like few before her. She's a picture of perfection over varying racing surfaces and circuits, winning on dirt and all-weather tracks. Has exhibited the ability to put away her competition and win with ease where expected.
Weaknesses: Immense talent has scared many challengers away, so she's not well-versed against a big field of top-class rivals. Given her late-running style, she could be challenged if a big field showed up at the Grade 1 level; though she did rally to beat 11 sprinters in her maiden debut. Simply put, there are few flaws.

05 40 Quality Road Todd A. Pletcher Edward P. Evans

Has a 2010 record of (5-4-1-0); 2010 Earnings: $ 1,260,000; 2010 Win % is 80%; In-The-Money is 100%. Quality Road finished 1st on the following race: Woodward S. @ Saratoga Sept. 4, 2010; Metroppolitan H. @ Belmont Park on May 31, 2010; Donn H. @ Gulfstream Park on Feb. 6, 2010; Hal's Hope S. @ Gulfstream Park on Jan. 3, 2010; Amsterdam S. @ Saratoga on Aug. 3, 2009; Blackberry presents the 58th running of the Florid @ Gulfstream Park on March 28, 2009 and Fountain of Youth S. @ Gulfstream Park on Feb. 28, 2009. Quality Road finished 2nd in Whitney H. @ Saratoga on Aug. 7, 2010; Jockey Club Gold Cup S. @ Belmont Park on Oct. 3, 2009 and Allowance @ Gulfstream Park on Jan. 10, 2009; Finished 3rd Shadwell Travers S. @ Saratoga on Aug. 29, 2009.

06 36 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert Watson & Weitman Performance LLC, Michael E. Pegram

Has a 2010 record of (6-4-0-1); 2010 Earnings: $ 1,764,278; 2010 Win % is 66%; In-The-Money is 83%. Lookin At Lucky finished 1st on the following race: Indiana Derby @ Hoosier Park on Oct. 2, 2010; Izod Haskell Invitational S. @ Monmouth Park on Aug. 1, 2010; Preakness S. @ Pimlico held on May 15, 2010; Rebel S. @ Oaklawn Park on March 13, 2010; CashCall Futurity @ Hollywood Park on Dec. 19, 2009; Norfolk S. @ Oak Tree At Santa Anita on Oct. 4, 2009 and Del Mar Futurity @ Del Mar on Sept. 7, 2009; Finished 2nd in Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile @ Oak Tree At Santa Anita held on Nov. 7, 2009 and 3rd in Santa Anita Derby @ Santa Anita Park on April 3, 2010.

07 26 Sidney's Candy John W. Sadler Estate of Sid Craig; Jenny Craig

Has a 2010 record of (6-4-1-0); 2010 Earnings: $ 760,000; 2010 Win % is 66%; In-The-Money is 83%. Sidney's Candy finished 1st on the following race: La Jolla H. @ Del Mar on Aug. 14, 2010; Santa Anita Derby @ Santa Anita Park on Apr. 3, 2010; San Felipe S. @ Santa Anita Park on Mar. 13, 2010; San Vicente S. @ Santa Anita Park on Feb. 15, 2010 and Maiden Special Weight @ Del Mar on Aug. 22, 2009. Finished 2nd in Swaps S. @ Hollywood Park on May 1, 2010 and Maiden Special Weight @ Del Mar on July 25, 2009.

08 22 Fly Down Nicholas P. Zito Richard C. Pell

Has a 2010 record of (3-2-0-0); 2010 Earnings: $ 149,700.Fly Down finished 1st on the following race: Dwyer S. @ Belmont Park held on May 8, 2010; Allowance held on Feb. 21, 2010; and in Maiden Special Weight @ Churchill Downs held on Nov.28, 2009. Finished 2nd in Travers S. @ Saratoga on Aug. 28, 2010 and in Belmont S. @ Belmont Park on June 5, 2010; Finished 3rd in Jockey Club Gold Cup @ Belmont Park held on Oct. 02, 2010 and in Maiden Special Weight held on Oct. 25, 2009. Finished 5th in Jim Dandy @ Saratoga held on July 31, 2010 and 9th in Louisiana Derby @ Fair Grounds Race Course held on Mar. 27, 2010.

09 22 Musket Man Derek S. Ryan Eric Fein, Victor Carlson

Has a 2010 record of (6-1-3-2); 2010 Earnings: $ 341,970; 2010 Win % is 16%; In-The-Money is 100%. Musket Man finished 1st on the following race: Super S. @ Tampa Bay Downs held on Feb. 6, 2010; Illinois Derby @ Hawthorne on Apr. 4, 2009; and Tampa Bay Derby @ Tampa Bay held on Mar. 14, 2009. Finished 2nd in Monmouth Cup S. @ Monmouth Park held on Oct. 9, 2010; Metropolian H. @ Belmont Park held on May 31, 2010; and Carter H. @ Aqueduct held on Apr.3, 2010. Finished 3rd in Whitney H. @ Saratoga held on Aug.7, 2010; Churchill Downs S. @ Churchill Downs held on May 1, 2010; Blackberry Preakness S. @ Pimlico held on May 16, 2009; Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands @ Churchill Downs held on May 2, 2009; and Sam F. Davis S. @ Tampa Bay Downs held on Feb.14, 2009.

10 18 Rail Trip Richard E. Dutrow Jr. Jay Em Ess Stable

Has a 2010 record of (4-2-1-0); 2010 Earnings: $ 302,500; 2010 Win % is 50%; In-The-Money is 75%. Rail Trip finished 1st on the following race: Californian Race @ Hollywood Park held on June 12, 2010; Mervyn LeRoy @ Hollywood Park on May 8, 2010; TVG / BETFAIR Hollywood Gold Cup H. @ Hollywood Park held on July 11, 2009; Santana Mile H. @ Santa Anita Park held on Apr.4, 2009; Allowance @ Santa Anita Park held on Feb. 20, 2009; and Allowance Optional Claiming @ Santa Anita Park on Jan. 30, 2009. Finished 2nd in Hollywood Gold Cup H. @ Hollywood Park held on July 10, 2010; Californian S. @ Hollywood Park held on June 13, 2009; and Mervyn LeRoy H. @ Hollywood Park held on May 9, 2009. Finished 3rd in Pacific Classic S. @ Del Mar held on Sept. 6, 2009 and 5th in Jockey Club Gold Cup S. @ Belmont Park held on Oct. 2, 2010.

11 17 Super Saver (OUT) Todd A. Pletcher Winstar Farm, LLC

Has a 2010 record of (6-1-1-1); 2010 Earnings: $ 1,718,534; 2010 Win % is 16%; In-The-Money is 50%. Super Saver finished 1st on the following race: Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands @ Churchill Downs held on May 1, 2010; Kentucky Jockey Club S. @ Churchill Downs held on Nov. 28, 2009; and Maiden Special Weight @ Belmont Park held on Sept. 11, 2009. Finished 2nd in Arkansas Derby @ Oaklawn Park held on Apr. 10, 2010; and Maiden Special Weight @ Belmont Park held on Aug. 22, 2009. Finished 3rd in Tampa Bay Derby @ Tampa Bay Downs held on Mar. 13, 2010; 4th in Izod Haskell Invitational S. @ Monmouth Park held on Aug. 1, 2010; and Champagne S. @ Belmont Park held on Oct. 10, 2009. Finished 8th in Preakness S. @ Pimlico held on May 15, 2010 and 10th in Travers S. @ Saratoga held on Aug. 28, 2010.

12 16 Afleet Express (OUT) James A. Jerkens Gainesway Farm, Martin L. Cherry

Has a 2010 record of (7-4-4-1); 2010 Earnings: $ 835,140. Afleet Express finished 1st on the following race: Travers S. @ Saratoga on Aug. 28, 2010; Pegasus S. @ Monmouth Park on June 19, 2010; Allowance on May 22, 2010 and Maiden Special Weight on Dec. 5, 2009. Finished 2nd in Allowance on Jan. 30, 2010; 3rd in Jim Dandy S. @ Saratoga on July 31, 2010 and 5th in Allowance @ Churchill Downs on Feb. 25, 2010

13 16 A Little Warm Anthony W. Dutrow Edward P. Evans

Has a 2010 record of (7-3-2-1); 2010 Earnings: $ 708,000; 2010 Win % is 42%; In-The-Money is 85%. A Little Warm finished 1st on the following race: Jim Dandy S. @ Saratoga held on July 31, 2010; Allowance Optional Claiming @ Delaware Park raced on June 29, 2010; Spectacular Bid S. @ Gulfstream Park raced on Jan.9, 2010; and Maiden Special Weight @ Parx Racing At Philadelphia Pa held on Nov. 23, 2009. Finished 2nd in Louisiana Derby @ Fair Grounds held on Mar. 27, 2010; Hutcheon S. @ Gulfstream Park on Feb. 20, 2010; Maiden Special Weight @ Delaware Park on Oct. 10, 2009; and Maiden Special Weight @ Parx Racing At Philadelphi Pa on June 9, 2009. Finished 3rd in Pennsylvania Derby @ Parx Racing At Philadelphia Pa on Sept. 25, 2010, 4th in Maiden Special Weight @ Delaware Park on Aug. 18, 2009; and 5th in Travers S. @ Saratoga on Aug. 28, 2010.

14 16 Drosselmeyer (layoff) William I. Mott Winstar Farm, LLC

Has a 2010 record of (4-1-1-1); 2010 Earnings: $ 149,200. Drosselmeyer finished 1st on the following race: Belmont S. @ Belmont Park held on June 5, 2010; Allowance held on Jan. 31, 2010; and Maiden Special Weight @ Parx Racing At Philadelphia Pa held on Nov. 18, 2009. Finished 2nd in Dwyer S. @ Belmont Park held on May 8, 2010; Maiden Special Weight held on Oct. 24, 2009; and Maiden Special Weight held on Sept. 20, 2009. Finished 3rd in Louisiana Derby @ Fair Grounds held on Mar. 27, 2010; Maiden Special Weight @ Delaware Park held on Aug.16, 2009; and 4th in Risen Star @ Fair Grounds Race Course held on Feb. 20, 2010

15 16 Haynesfield Steven M. Asmussen Turtle Bird Stable

Has a 2010 record of (4-3-0-0); 2010 Earnings: $ 699,300; 2010 Win % is 75%; In-The-Money is 75%. Haynesfield finished 1st on the following race: Jockey Club Gold Cup S. @ Belmont Park held on Oct. 2, 2010; Suburban H. @ Belmont Park held on July 3, 2010; Allowance Optional Claiming @ Belmont Park held on June 13, 2010; Discovery H. @ Aqueduct held on Nov. 21, 2009; Empire Classic @ Belmont Park held on Oct. 24, 2009; Whirlaway S. @ Aqueduct held on Feb. 7, 2009; Count Fleet S. @ Aqueduct held on Jan. 3, 2009; and Damon Runyon S. @ Aqueduct held on Dec. 7, 2008. Finished 2nd in Sir Keys S. @ Belmont Park held on Oct. 2, 2009; 4th in Whitney H. @ Saratoga held on Aug. 7, 2010; and 8th in Gotham S. @ Aqueduct held on Mar. 7, 2009.

16 16 Ice Box Nicholas P. Zito Robert V. La Penta

Has a 2010 record of (4-2-1-0); 2010 Earnings: $ 879,700. Ice Box finished 1st on the following race: Florida Derby @ Gulfstream Park raced on Mar. 20, 2010; Allow @ raced on Jan. 18, 2010; Maiden Special Weight on Oct. 30, 2009. Finished 2nd in Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands @ Churchill Downs was on May 1, 2010 and 4th in Maiden Special Weight @ Delaware Park took place on Oct. 8, 2009. Finished 5th in Monmouth Cup S. @ Monmouth Park on Oct. 9, 2010; Fountain of Youth @ Gulfstream Park on Feb. 20, 2010; and Maiden Special Weight on Sept. 5, 2009. Finished 6th in Haskell @ Monmouth Park on Aug. 1, 2010; and 7th in Maiden Special Weight held on Aug. 9, 2009. Finished 8th in Travers S. @ Saratoga on Aug. 28, 2010 and Belmont S. @ Belmont Park held on June 5, 2010.

17 16 Jackson Bend (S15%) Nicholas P. Zito Robert V. La Penta, Jacks or Better Farm Inc.

Has a 2010 record of (7-0-3-1); 2010 Earnings: $ 345,700; 2010 Win % is 0%; In-The-Money is 57%. Jackson Bend finished 1st on the following race: Florida Stallion In Reality S. @ Calder Race Course raced on Oct.17, Aug. 29, and Aug. 8, 2009 respectively and in Frank Gomez Memorial S. @ Calder Race Course on July, 2009. Finished 2nd in Wood Memorial S.@ Aqueduct on Apr. 3, 2010; Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S.@ Gulfstream Park on Feb. 20, 2010; and Holy Bull S. @ Gulfstream Park on Jan. 23, 2010. Finished 5th in Pegasus S. @ Monmouth Park on June 19, 2010 and 12th in Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands @ Churchill Downs on May 1, 2010.

2010 Breeders Cup Horse Analysis

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Thanks and Happy Handicapping

Joe Kaufman

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